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Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for FSD NWS Office

000
FXUS63 KFSD 082312
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
512 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Mixed precipitation in the form of freezing drizzle and snow will
impact this region this evening through the overnight period.
Snowfall totals look to range between 2-5 inches, with ice
accumulations up to a tenth of an inch.

2) Confidence continues to grow that another system will take aim at
the region early next week, bringing precipitation chances and
stronger winds back to the forecast.

****************************************************************

Stratus deck continues to overspread the region as an upper level
shortwave moves over Nebraska. Already seeing some sites just south
of our area reporting freezing rain/drizzle and light snow. Will
continue to see this precipitation lift northeastward this
afternoon, with impacts to the MO River Valley likely to begin
around 22z. Sounding profiles continue to lack saturation in the DGZ
initially, suggesting that freezing drizzle will be the dominant p-
type to start. Could certainly still see some light snow mixed in at
times, though the better chances for that look to occur near sunset
as thermal profiles cool and greater saturation occurs. That being
said, expect impacts to the I-90 corridor to begin near sunset as
snow becomes the dominant p-type, which will likely cause some
issues during the evening commute.

As alluded to in the previous discussion, may see snowfall rates
approach 1" per hour - as evident by latest HREF guidance. Thus, may
see visibilities approach a mile or less at times, so we encourage
you to proceed with caution if you must travel! Fortunately, winds
should remain relatively light throughout the event, which should
minimize the threat for blowing snow. Expect precipitation to
continue lifting northeastward through the evening, impacting the
Hwy-14 corridor closer to 2-4z. Otherwise, should see snow begin to
gradually taper off from SW to NE during the overnight period. Given
that saturation will wane on the back side of the system, may see a
bit of freezing drizzle mix in again as the system departs the
region. While the heaviest snowfall across the region looks to occur
between 00-06z, could still see some light accumulations occur along
and east of I-29 between 06-12z. So, in terms of snowfall totals,
have values ranging between 2 to 5 inches, with the highest amounts
generally focused along the I-90 corridor. In regard to ice
accumulations, have totals ranging from a glaze to a tenth of an
inch, with the highest amounts still likely across NE Nebraska and
NW Iowa.

Aside from some lingering light snow across SW Minnesota, should see
largely dry conditions return to the region by Friday morning. In
regard to winds, look direction to gradually shift to the
east/southeast throughout the afternoon, with gusts approaching 15
mph in areas west of I-29. Cloud cover will also be slow to wane
during this time, keeping highs near/slightly above freezing for a
vast majority of our area. Otherwise, look for lows to fall into the
low to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Quieter and more seasonal conditions are expected Saturday as
southerly flow shifts to the northwest with the passage of our next
shortwave trough. While deterministic guidance continues to show
limited precipitation chances due to dry air, a quick blast of cold
air advection (CAA) will likely lead to chillier conditions
overnight with temperatures expected to be in low to mid teens
across the area. Looking at Sunday and Monday, a strong upper level
ridge will move in from the west bringing mostly clear and slightly
breezy conditions with an abundance of sunshine. Temperatures should
slightly increase with highs peaking in the 30s to low 40s as a shot
of warm air advection (WAA) moves in on back side of the ridge. This
along with increasing cloud cover due to the approaching system
Monday night, could lead to slightly warmer overnight temperatures
in the upper 20s to lower 30s as southeasterly winds continue.

Looking aloft, deterministic guidance continues to show a
potentially strong winter system getting ejected from the Rockies
into the central and northern plains Tuesday. While there is still
significant amounts of uncertainty regarding the timing and
progression of this system, confidence continues to increase in
precipitation occurring. Looking at both the GFS and European
ensembles, the probability of exceeding .50 inches of QPF has
increased with probabilities now up to 70-80 percent. Couple that
with the Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables (ESAT) showing values
in 97th-99th percentile for precipitable water (PWAT) and the result
could be a very wet and breezy day Tuesday and Wednesday. P-types
issues will become more likely with the current set up, but this
will very depending on the surface temperatures. With temperatures
currently expected to be in the mid to upper 30 and low 40s
throughout the day, rain could transition to a wintry mix then snow
rather quickly. Either way, we`ll continue to monitor the progress
of this system as it tracks into the pacific northwest this upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2022

Freezing drizzle will gradually transition to snow through the
evening with visibilities dropping to around 1 mile or less at
times. Precipitation will end from west to east from 05Z to 12Z.
IFR ceilings will linger through the day on Friday. Winds will be
light through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for SDZ050-052>054-
     057>071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for SDZ040-055-056.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for MNZ098.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...Gumbs
AVIATION...JM

NWS FSD Area Forecast Discussion