Dickinson County Courthouse, Spirit Lake, Iowa

The boil order for portions of Wahpeton has been lifted as of 10:10am on Aug. 18

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Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for FSD NWS Office

FXUS63 KFSD 190355 AAA

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1055 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Expanded the Severe Tstorm Watch across much of the northwest
Iowa as storms track east into a continually favorable environment
based on RAP analysis of 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts and MUCAPE > 2000
ahead of the passing front. Further west where winds have turned
northerly (near and west of I-29), severe weather threat has
diminished for the night.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

A moderately strong jet max will dive south late this afternoon and
evening helping bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
area. Early afternoon satellite shows what may be the mid level
wave dropping south towards De Smet and Brookings with the surface
cool front accelerating a little more quickly than expected towards
I-29. Went ahead and decreased the chances for thunderstorms west of
I-29 and especially near and west of the James River. The focus of
this convection should be diurnal heating and frontal forcing which
means the best time will be from about 5 pm to 9 pm today. Overall
instability this evening is moderate, CAPE about 1500 J/kg, with the
EML running about 7 to 7.5 degrees C. However the shear is pretty
minimal so any severe threat should be very isolated with what will
more than likely be some pulsy updrafts that collapse on themselves
fairly quickly. While locally heavy rain will be possible the storms
should not train and are not expected to move overly slow so not
anticipating any flash flooding threat. PWAT values also about 1.25-
1.3 inches so not excessively high either. After this evening we
may see a lull in showery activity until mid to late morning on
Friday as the main upper level low drops south. The models are in
good agreement in expanding the showery activity from north to south
late Friday morning into the evening. Once again, heavy rain is not
expected, but some locally higher amounts around an inch or inch and
a half are possible. Overall, should be a cloudy and wet day Friday.
Highs mainly upper 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

The upper level low slowly shifts southeast on Saturday. Some
residual showers will be possible, mainly in the morning. Otherwise
gradual clearing and a north wind will keep temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday into Thursday should be a quiet period of weather as a broad
upper level ridge builds to the west and the area remains in a mild
and dry flow regime. Overall highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s
on Sunday, then mainly in the 80s Monday through Thursday. Lows
should generally be from 55 to 65. The chances for rainfall will be
small, but by Thursday there are some hints of some energy that
could bring rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Overnight VFR conditions will prevail with winds becoming light
and northerly. May see areas of fog east of the I-29 corridor
overnight but this does not look likely to affect TAF sites at
this time. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms
with MVFR ceilings is expected to spread in from the north Friday
with gusty northwest winds.





NWS FSD Area Forecast Discussion